I don’t know about this particular predictive model, but as a data nerd I can offer that the state polls you mentioned, which are the only ones that might matter, are so tight that they just have to be within the margin of error. If that’s true, it means there’s no reason to have an especially good feeling about a +1, or be particularly worried about a -5ish, depending on the margin in a particular poll. My hunch is that these numbers aren’t saying anything other than this election looks a lot like the last many cycles, which is to say very tight and swingy. Of course that’s a little bonkers and dispiriting given a felon candidate etc., but still —I don’t see any real reason for more than the usual political despair!
The Dems are seeing those numbers and thinking "fundraiser opportunity!" There's a good chance they're thrilled about how they can fundraise off of this. They need your help (ie money) in "the most important election ever" since "democracy will be on the ballot" against "bad Orangeman"
Not to mention the fundraising they can do when Trump is back in power. They fail to acknowledge that Trump could bring a Pinochet-like dictatorship lasting a generation or more. Junior and Tom Cotton could be our next strongmen. I do not joke when I say that football stadiums could become purge centers under Trump. His dark, violent language is constant. He sent out a fundraising email today demanding to bring out "the guillotine." A campaign that was occasionally violent in 2016 is full-on bloodbath today. It is not a joke. It is not just words.
i’m not saying that a dictatorship under trump isn’t possible. first because anything is possible, second because trump would very much like to be a dictator, and third because our country is deeply stupid. my question is how do you think it would happen?
my first instinct would be that the hardest part would be getting the military and the secret service on board. military people tend to love trump but they also seem like they would have huge hard ons for the constitution. the secret service would be even more difficult, i would imagine. they are trained to protect whoever they are assigned to protect with the same amount of commitment and, uh, vigor? i dunno what are your thoughts on these two groups and what else will have to come to pass for trump to become a dictator?
It has been an enlightening last couple of weeks on this question. Trump is showing that he just wants to get elected to make the trials stop. He has no desire to sit in meetings nor get daily NSA reports. Speaker Johnson and the House GOP see this as a desirable shell in which to launch an autocracy. Make Ken Paxton AG. Put Kash Patel in charge of the FBI. Issue directives to the cabinet and DHS to deport immigrants and even a few citizens they add to a list. Do a few targeted political assassinations. The Bidens? The Clooneys? Obama's daughters (Trump has a real strange obsession with them)? Pinochet didn't have to build new concentration camps to destabilize his nation. He only had to kill a few thousand prominent critics. Kash Patel, Steve Miller and Senator Tom Cotton seem committed to that idea. And I don't think it is strongman roleplay. I think the threat is real. A few targeted political assassinations would seriously destabilize the nation. We would be thrown into fear and turmoil. People would be afraid to go to an airport, seeing friends and colleagues detained there before boarding a flight. Etc.
political assassinatos would definitely cause a nationwide panic. and while trump doesn’t have his own paramilitary arm groups like the proud boys and other far right militia types could step into that role. i just think that without total commitment from the military and secret service a trump dictatorship would be dead in the water.
in his first coup attempt trump couldn’t even get his own VP to back him. that said, one could could definitely argue that pence was trying to distance himself from trump in order to get in good with what he thought would be the new power base in the GOP: the anti- trump republicans. woops lol that didn’t work out and trump is back. still, though, without military power behind him any coup would be DOA.
i hope im not just being naive. but after seeing so much wild shit happen over the past however many years, who the fuck know with this country.
Good points. My concern is that there is no longer anyone from the old Republican establishment. When Mitt Romney leaves the Senate, they are extinct. So while Trump might have a lack of people who agree to carry out extrajudicial actions against protesters, migrants and political rivals, there are just enough radicalized loyalists who will say yes. Remember that dipshit, Miles "I Am Part Of The Resistance" Taylor? Do we really believe that middle managers inside DHS can contain a more furious Trump for another four years? The guardrails will hold? I dislike terrorism analogies, but the "no" side has to be perfect in blocking Trump's orders. The "yes" faction only needs to get through and do something horrible once. And once they break through and do something horrible, all bets are off. If we do things the traditional, pre-2016 way, Trump's DOJ will file charges against Alvin Bragg and Joe Biden and the indictments will be thrown out in a matter of weeks (what crimes did Bragg and Biden commit?). But arranging a tragic accident to befall Fanni WIllis or Jamie Raskin? Surely that's easy. And with the Supreme Court about to rule that the president can commit some crimes so long as he believes it's within the scope of his power, it might be about to get very easy.
The Kennedy name brand still holds power but by whichconstituency. Conspiracy theorists, Christian white nationalists. Surely not the progressive center/left. Site wish Jill Stein could get better coverage....maybe even debate time as she and Cornel ate the only voice for peace in hell hole Washington DC.
It never ceases to amaze me that we have Russian assets working in our Congress and it's just business as usual😕 SCOTUS is illegitimate and in the hands of Christofascists who are legislating from the bench. What are the Dems doing to put out this fire??? Don't they understand you can't stop a coup by voting? Biden won in 2020 and all the key coup planners are still free! They've had almost 4 years to regroup, learn from their mistakes, and plot the next one.
Seems like the Democrats and Biden just need to focus on 6 or 7 states. Biden hasn't been nice to us New Yorkers. He's been busy sweet-talking Nikki Haley voters. But that's fine! He still has our votes! So get out there, Joe, and campaign in:
Nevada
Arizona
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia (probably lost, but do it)
You don't even have to campaign in person. Just flood those 7 states with ads and memes.
AOC came in, threw bombs everywhere, then at some point said to herself "hey, maybe there's a way to actually get shit did rather than just throwing bombs" and then started doing that. She's learning what the tomato-brains in the Freedom Caucus refuse to.
I don’t know about this particular predictive model, but as a data nerd I can offer that the state polls you mentioned, which are the only ones that might matter, are so tight that they just have to be within the margin of error. If that’s true, it means there’s no reason to have an especially good feeling about a +1, or be particularly worried about a -5ish, depending on the margin in a particular poll. My hunch is that these numbers aren’t saying anything other than this election looks a lot like the last many cycles, which is to say very tight and swingy. Of course that’s a little bonkers and dispiriting given a felon candidate etc., but still —I don’t see any real reason for more than the usual political despair!
“Is it just the Gavin Newsom show forever? Where’s Gretchen Whitmer? Where is, god help us, Mayor Pete?”
C’mon Cros this is such JB Pritzker erasure. No love for our big guy?
you KNOW i love me Big Body Britzker but he's also been pretty quiet lately!
He’s just biding his time before he bursts through the wall Kool Aid man style at the DNC.
The Dems are seeing those numbers and thinking "fundraiser opportunity!" There's a good chance they're thrilled about how they can fundraise off of this. They need your help (ie money) in "the most important election ever" since "democracy will be on the ballot" against "bad Orangeman"
Not to mention the fundraising they can do when Trump is back in power. They fail to acknowledge that Trump could bring a Pinochet-like dictatorship lasting a generation or more. Junior and Tom Cotton could be our next strongmen. I do not joke when I say that football stadiums could become purge centers under Trump. His dark, violent language is constant. He sent out a fundraising email today demanding to bring out "the guillotine." A campaign that was occasionally violent in 2016 is full-on bloodbath today. It is not a joke. It is not just words.
i’m not saying that a dictatorship under trump isn’t possible. first because anything is possible, second because trump would very much like to be a dictator, and third because our country is deeply stupid. my question is how do you think it would happen?
my first instinct would be that the hardest part would be getting the military and the secret service on board. military people tend to love trump but they also seem like they would have huge hard ons for the constitution. the secret service would be even more difficult, i would imagine. they are trained to protect whoever they are assigned to protect with the same amount of commitment and, uh, vigor? i dunno what are your thoughts on these two groups and what else will have to come to pass for trump to become a dictator?
It has been an enlightening last couple of weeks on this question. Trump is showing that he just wants to get elected to make the trials stop. He has no desire to sit in meetings nor get daily NSA reports. Speaker Johnson and the House GOP see this as a desirable shell in which to launch an autocracy. Make Ken Paxton AG. Put Kash Patel in charge of the FBI. Issue directives to the cabinet and DHS to deport immigrants and even a few citizens they add to a list. Do a few targeted political assassinations. The Bidens? The Clooneys? Obama's daughters (Trump has a real strange obsession with them)? Pinochet didn't have to build new concentration camps to destabilize his nation. He only had to kill a few thousand prominent critics. Kash Patel, Steve Miller and Senator Tom Cotton seem committed to that idea. And I don't think it is strongman roleplay. I think the threat is real. A few targeted political assassinations would seriously destabilize the nation. We would be thrown into fear and turmoil. People would be afraid to go to an airport, seeing friends and colleagues detained there before boarding a flight. Etc.
political assassinatos would definitely cause a nationwide panic. and while trump doesn’t have his own paramilitary arm groups like the proud boys and other far right militia types could step into that role. i just think that without total commitment from the military and secret service a trump dictatorship would be dead in the water.
in his first coup attempt trump couldn’t even get his own VP to back him. that said, one could could definitely argue that pence was trying to distance himself from trump in order to get in good with what he thought would be the new power base in the GOP: the anti- trump republicans. woops lol that didn’t work out and trump is back. still, though, without military power behind him any coup would be DOA.
i hope im not just being naive. but after seeing so much wild shit happen over the past however many years, who the fuck know with this country.
Good points. My concern is that there is no longer anyone from the old Republican establishment. When Mitt Romney leaves the Senate, they are extinct. So while Trump might have a lack of people who agree to carry out extrajudicial actions against protesters, migrants and political rivals, there are just enough radicalized loyalists who will say yes. Remember that dipshit, Miles "I Am Part Of The Resistance" Taylor? Do we really believe that middle managers inside DHS can contain a more furious Trump for another four years? The guardrails will hold? I dislike terrorism analogies, but the "no" side has to be perfect in blocking Trump's orders. The "yes" faction only needs to get through and do something horrible once. And once they break through and do something horrible, all bets are off. If we do things the traditional, pre-2016 way, Trump's DOJ will file charges against Alvin Bragg and Joe Biden and the indictments will be thrown out in a matter of weeks (what crimes did Bragg and Biden commit?). But arranging a tragic accident to befall Fanni WIllis or Jamie Raskin? Surely that's easy. And with the Supreme Court about to rule that the president can commit some crimes so long as he believes it's within the scope of his power, it might be about to get very easy.
The Kennedy name brand still holds power but by whichconstituency. Conspiracy theorists, Christian white nationalists. Surely not the progressive center/left. Site wish Jill Stein could get better coverage....maybe even debate time as she and Cornel ate the only voice for peace in hell hole Washington DC.
It never ceases to amaze me that we have Russian assets working in our Congress and it's just business as usual😕 SCOTUS is illegitimate and in the hands of Christofascists who are legislating from the bench. What are the Dems doing to put out this fire??? Don't they understand you can't stop a coup by voting? Biden won in 2020 and all the key coup planners are still free! They've had almost 4 years to regroup, learn from their mistakes, and plot the next one.
Seems like the Democrats and Biden just need to focus on 6 or 7 states. Biden hasn't been nice to us New Yorkers. He's been busy sweet-talking Nikki Haley voters. But that's fine! He still has our votes! So get out there, Joe, and campaign in:
Nevada
Arizona
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia (probably lost, but do it)
You don't even have to campaign in person. Just flood those 7 states with ads and memes.
AOC came in, threw bombs everywhere, then at some point said to herself "hey, maybe there's a way to actually get shit did rather than just throwing bombs" and then started doing that. She's learning what the tomato-brains in the Freedom Caucus refuse to.
What are these "bombs" you speak of which AOC at some point threw? Are they in the room with us now?
I, too, would like to know.